The Congress has raised concerns about the accuracy of the GDP growth numbers released by the Centre, alleging irregularities and data manipulation. This analysis delves into the specific issues highlighted by the party.
On Thursday, the Congress claimed that there is growing evidence of irregularities in the gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers released earlier this week. The party alleged that the Narendra Modi-led government must explain the figures due to concerns about their methodology and accuracy. According to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the Indian economy grew by 7.8% in the April-June quarter.
The Centre said that the manufacturing sector grew 9.2% during the first quarter of the financial year 2026-’27. This was up from 8.3% in the same period last year. The services sector grew 10%, compared with 8% a year ago, it added.
Congress leader Jairam Ramesh noted on Thursday that the numbers for the previous year’s April-June quarter were revised four times from around Rs 86 lakh crore to around Rs 80 lakh crore. He argued that this could suggest a potential issue with the comparative base.
'If you keep shrinking the base you’re comparing against, this year’s number will automatically look much bigger than it really is, even if nothing has actually changed on the ground,' the Congress said in a statement on social media. 'That is simple arithmetic, not economic growth.'
Ramesh also referred to an estimate by former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg that if the base year had not been revised down, nominal growth would be closer to 2.6% rather than the government’s claim of 10.3%.
The Congress further noted that the government had revised GDP growth figures for all four years since 2022-’23. 'Taken together, the GDP has been revised down by Rs 43 lakh crore across 4 years,' the party said. 'This is a very large ‘correction’.'
Ramesh also questioned why the Union government’s deflator for the April-June quarter came down to just 2.5%, arguing that it did not accurately reflect inflation. Real GDP is calculated by nominal GDP by the deflator and then multiplying by 100, with the aim of eliminating the effect of inflation.
'Now ask any household running a kitchen budget whether prices have gone by only 2.5% this year and you will get quite a different answer,' the Congress leader remarked.
Ramesh said that the figures appeared most suspect on the indicators of manufacturing and consumption. 'According to Mr Garg’s calculations, manufacturing GVA [Gross Value Added] has actually shrunk by 5.2% compared to last year, while private consumption has fallen by 5.4%,' he noted.
On Tuesday, Sanjeev Sanyal, a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, in an interview to India Today, denied allegations of data manipulation. He did acknowledge, however, that there had been a problem with the methodology to calculate GDP until the base year was updated last year.
Source:
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